Climate impact studies from scenarios: Help or hindrance?
There has recently been a proliferation of research into the possible impacts of future climate change using the scenario approach. Although the method has a sound conceptual basis, there is considerable scope for misuse and misinterpretation. This paper outlines the conceptual basis of the scenario method, reviews its strengths and outlines its weaknesses. The need always to approach the method critically is emphasised. An alternative response surface approach is presented that circumvents some of the problems identified.